Some things to note from last night:
1. Contrary to what one might think from seeing the Wrecked List, which on good days looks like end-stage FDL and on bad days like a cross between Reddit and 4chan, 538’s Nate Silver observes that Bernie and Hillary supporters in the real world are more likely to support either Bernie or Hillary than, say, Cruz supporters are to back Trump, or vice versa:
Another sign of how painful this nomination process is likely to be for Republicans, and how Democrats’ predicament isn’t quite the same:
According to exit polls, only 48 percent of New Hampshire Republican voters would be pleased with Donald Trump as their nominee. Trump fared better on the question than Ted Cruz (38 percent) and Marco Rubio (40 percent), but nonetheless, Republicans who did not vote for Trump would have trouble with him as their nominee by almost a 3:1 margin.
By contrast, 64 percent of New Hampshire Democrats would be happy with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, while 78 would be happy with Sanders.
2. This was supposed to have clarified the GOP race and confirmed Cruz as the Anti-Trump, if not the New Front-Runner. Instead, it made the race that much more, erm, interesting. 538’s David Wasserman states:
If you were to sketch out the most disastrous New Hampshire outcome possible for the anti-Trump GOP “establishment,” I’d argue it would be what we’re witnessing right now.
Unlike in Iowa, Trump appears to be exceeding his polling average and expectations. Furthermore, the only “breakout” candidate in the next tier appears to be John Kasich, who looks likely to win a clear second place finish thanks to strong showings in liberal enclaves. But Kasich holds little appeal outside of New Hampshire. Bush looks likely to finish slightly ahead of Rubio, setting up an establishment muddle in South Carolina.
In one sense, tonight looks like Clinton’s worst night of the 2016 campaign yet. But, if tonight also means that the Republican race remains a complete mess for the next several months, it could actually turn into Clinton’s best news in the long run.
3. Not many delegates were at stake, and Bernie didn’t take them all by any means.
4. New Hampshire is an open-primary state with a long tradition of crossover voting. Of the remaining 52 states and territories, only 20 (such as American Samoa) have open primaries. Considering that Hillary tied Bernie 49%-49% among actual Democrats in New Hampshire, this is going to be quite important as the primary season rolls on.
5. It will be interesting to see what Nevada and South Carolina look like. Nevada’s caucus is a closed caucus of the beauty-contest type, but South Carolina’s is open. Both states — and indeed, the next dozen-odd states — are far less welcoming terrain for Bernie.
6. Now that Bernie’s got a win and a narrow loss under his belt, the national media will be giving him more scrutiny. Finally, the cherished media coverage various Sanders supporters have wished for since April of last year! Well, as I’ve been saying for months now, be careful what you wish for. You might get it.